Is it possible that demand for and from Apple is low because despite their marketing, Apple hasn’t started shipping their generative AI features and thus consumers haven’t bought Apple products that have generative AI features?
On the other hand, Apple should have had an uptick in server purchases, even if they’re modified versions of Apple’s desktops/workstations.
On a third hand, inflation is high in the United States right now and we’re coming up to the end of an election cycle. If consumers are out of money and businesses have suspended hiring until after the election or the new year, chips could be slow going until roughly Valentine’s Day or end of calendar Q1 2025.
I don't think the server uptick for Apple would be super significant. They already do lots in the cloud, like streaming, storage, App Store, etc. At the TSMC level, any AI servers they buy -- with Apple Silicon or a 3rd part like Nvidia -- would show up under HPC.
Consumer sentiment may be a in a holding pattern now, but I think your first thesis explains it the most: AI isn't here yet, so why bother..
In a tech Slack I hang out in that has a dedicated Apple channel with Apple fan-folx (of course it’s folx because it’s tech and right now it’s still hip to be to the Left of Stalin) several people were complaining about how Apple’s marketing was pushing AI but Apple hasn’t released the AI features to the general public yet (the iOS 18.1 is in Beta 7 as I write these words.)
I also think that Apple has lost touch with American consumers: $1500 is a lot of money to most people.
Finally, I wonder if you’ve aware of how Apple is doing their supply chain for their AI servers, especially the bit where they’re opening the servers up to inspection/audit by the security community. I _think_ there’s a white paper; if so, I can try to provide a link if you’re interested.
It should be pointed out that the AI servers that Apple will be putting in their data centers all run on the M-series chip. Now, it’s possible that Apple won’t need “that many” servers for AI. On the other hand, look at how many devices are on the market today that will support Apple Intelligence®™. And those features are going to be baked in to any future products.
While I’m on a tangent, let’s also speculate about what your report potentially says about Vision Pro: Apple must not be selling too many of them. We can interpolate this because Vision Pro uses the M2 Pro plus other chips Apple has invented. If there was strong demand for that product, there would be more demand for the chips that go into that device and thus we’d see stronger demand for TSMC.
Is it possible that demand for and from Apple is low because despite their marketing, Apple hasn’t started shipping their generative AI features and thus consumers haven’t bought Apple products that have generative AI features?
On the other hand, Apple should have had an uptick in server purchases, even if they’re modified versions of Apple’s desktops/workstations.
On a third hand, inflation is high in the United States right now and we’re coming up to the end of an election cycle. If consumers are out of money and businesses have suspended hiring until after the election or the new year, chips could be slow going until roughly Valentine’s Day or end of calendar Q1 2025.
I think each of those are possibilities.
I don't think the server uptick for Apple would be super significant. They already do lots in the cloud, like streaming, storage, App Store, etc. At the TSMC level, any AI servers they buy -- with Apple Silicon or a 3rd part like Nvidia -- would show up under HPC.
Consumer sentiment may be a in a holding pattern now, but I think your first thesis explains it the most: AI isn't here yet, so why bother..
In a tech Slack I hang out in that has a dedicated Apple channel with Apple fan-folx (of course it’s folx because it’s tech and right now it’s still hip to be to the Left of Stalin) several people were complaining about how Apple’s marketing was pushing AI but Apple hasn’t released the AI features to the general public yet (the iOS 18.1 is in Beta 7 as I write these words.)
I also think that Apple has lost touch with American consumers: $1500 is a lot of money to most people.
Finally, I wonder if you’ve aware of how Apple is doing their supply chain for their AI servers, especially the bit where they’re opening the servers up to inspection/audit by the security community. I _think_ there’s a white paper; if so, I can try to provide a link if you’re interested.
It should be pointed out that the AI servers that Apple will be putting in their data centers all run on the M-series chip. Now, it’s possible that Apple won’t need “that many” servers for AI. On the other hand, look at how many devices are on the market today that will support Apple Intelligence®™. And those features are going to be baked in to any future products.
While I’m on a tangent, let’s also speculate about what your report potentially says about Vision Pro: Apple must not be selling too many of them. We can interpolate this because Vision Pro uses the M2 Pro plus other chips Apple has invented. If there was strong demand for that product, there would be more demand for the chips that go into that device and thus we’d see stronger demand for TSMC.
Vision Pro is dead in the water.
I'll have more on what happened in an upcoming piece
I’d love to read your take on Vision Pro.
I don’t think it’s dead, but I do think Apple released yet another platform in search of problems. Talked about that in two different Medium posts:
What I Hope To Get Out of Apple’s Event Today https://medium.com/the-uncoded-developer/what-i-hope-to-get-out-of-apples-event-today-e3f19322ed24
What Did We Actually Get from the Apple Media Event? https://medium.com/the-uncoded-developer/what-did-we-actually-get-from-the-apple-media-event-e663093bd900